Inventory how-to

How to plan inventory for Halloween

Plan Halloween stock by setting order-by dates that work backward from the date you need stock on shelf, using last year's Halloween sales as your baseline and adding a safety buffer for the shipping delays common in September and October.

Short answer: Plan Halloween stock by setting order-by dates that work backward from the date you need stock on shelf, using last year's Halloween sales as your baseline and adding a safety buffer for the shipping delays common in September and October. Place orders earlier than you would for a normal month because supplier lead times often stretch during the fall rush.

Start from last year's numbers, not this month's

If you sold a product last Halloween, use those daily sales figures as your starting point, not the slow sales from July or August. A costume accessory that sold 2 units a day in July but 15 units a day in the week before Halloween last year needs to be forecast on the 15-a-day number, not the July number. If you have no prior Halloween data because the product is new, use a comparable item from last year or a cautious manual estimate, and plan to reorder faster if it sells through quicker than expected.

Work backward from Halloween, not forward from today

Pick the date you want stock sitting on your shelf, usually early-to-mid October to allow for a selling window. Then subtract your supplier's lead time and add a few safety days, since many suppliers get backed up in September with other retailers' holiday orders. If a supplier normally ships in 14 days but you know fall is busy for them, treat it as 21 days and order that much earlier.

Account for the short, sharp selling window

Halloween demand is compressed into a few weeks and drops off hard on November 1. This means two things: order enough to not run out in the final week before the 31st, but do not over-order stock that becomes dead weight in November. Costumes, decor, and candy in Halloween-specific packaging are hard to sell past the date, so lean toward slightly under-ordering on high-risk seasonal-only items and topping up once you see how fast they move, rather than placing one large order months out.

Watch case packs and minimums against your real sell-through

Suppliers often require case packs or minimum order quantities for seasonal lines. Check that the minimum doesn't force you into holding far more stock than you can sell by October 31. If a case pack is larger than what your forecast calls for, decide in advance whether you will accept the leftover risk or look for a smaller pack size.

Step by step

  1. Pull last year's daily sales for each Halloween SKU during the two weeks before October 31.
  2. Confirm each supplier's current lead time for the fall season, not their standard quoted lead time.
  3. Set your order-by date as: date you want stock on shelf, minus lead time, minus safety days.
  4. Calculate order quantity as daily sales x (lead time + days of cover) minus what you already have on hand or on order.
  5. Round up to the nearest case pack or supplier minimum, and flag any SKU where the minimum is much bigger than your forecasted need.
  6. Place orders in waves if possible: a first order in August or early September, a top-up order in late September based on how similar items are trending.
  7. After October 31, note which SKUs sold out early and which had leftovers, and save that for next year's baseline.

Worked example

Last Halloween, a store sold a fog machine at an average of 6 units a day in the final two weeks of October. This year the supplier's lead time is 20 days and the store wants a 5-day safety buffer, so the order-by date is 25 days before the target shelf date. Target shelf date is October 10, so the order-by date is September 15. With 10 units on hand and 0 on order, and planning for 14 days of cover (lead time plus cover), order quantity is 6 x (20 + 14) minus 10, which is 204 - 10 = 194 units, then rounded up to the nearest case pack of 200.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf can calculate order-by dates and quantities for Halloween SKUs using your sales history and each supplier's lead time, and it rounds to case packs automatically. It does not know in advance that a supplier will be slower in September, so you still need to manually adjust lead times or safety days for the season, and it treats all locations the same since it does not do per-location forecasts.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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FAQ

What if I'm selling a Halloween product for the first time and have no sales history?

Use a similar product from last year as a stand-in, or make a conservative manual estimate based on your overall store traffic. Place a smaller first order, watch how it sells in the first week after it's live, and place a faster top-up order if it moves quicker than expected, since your supplier's lead time may not allow a second order in time if you wait too long to check.

Should I order extra Halloween stock to be safe, even if I might not sell it all?

For items that only sell during Halloween, like costumes in Halloween-specific sizing or packaging, lean toward ordering closer to your forecast and topping up if needed, since leftover stock after November 1 is often hard to sell and ties up cash. For items with year-round use, like general decor or party supplies, a bit of extra buffer is lower risk since you can sell through it later.

Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU

Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.

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