How to plan inventory for Mother's Day

Work backward from the date

Mother's Day has a fixed date, so start from there and count backward. Add your supplier's lead time, then add a few safety days for delays, then add the days you want stock sitting on the shelf before the rush starts. That total tells you the latest date you can place the order and still be safe.

Use last year's numbers if you have them

If you were selling a year ago, look at daily sales for the two to three weeks around Mother's Day last year and compare it to your normal daily sales. That ratio is a rough multiplier you can apply to this year's baseline. If you do not have last year's data, use your best judgment on which variants are gift-oriented and plan a moderate bump rather than guessing wildly.

Do not just reorder your normal quantity

A normal reorder point formula assumes steady daily sales. During a holiday spike, daily sales will be higher than your recent average, so using the normal average will leave you short. Replace the daily sales figure with your spike estimate for the holiday window, then switch back to normal once the holiday passes.

Watch case packs and minimums

Suppliers often have minimum order quantities or case pack sizes that do not divide evenly into your spike quantity. Round up early so you are not caught placing a rush reorder two weeks before the holiday when lead time no longer fits.

Step by step

1. List your top gift-relevant variants from last year's Mother's Day period, or your best guess if you are new.
2. Pull last year's daily sales for those variants during the two to three weeks before the holiday and compare to normal daily sales to get a spike multiplier.
3. For each variant, calculate order qty = spike daily sales x (lead time + days of cover) - (on hand + on order).
4. Round the result up to the nearest case pack or supplier minimum.
5. Count backward from Mother's Day using lead time plus safety days to find your order-by date, and place the order by then.
6. Watch sell-through in the two weeks before the holiday and place a small top-up order if a variant is moving faster than planned and lead time still allows it.
7. After the holiday, let daily sales settle back to normal before trusting the forecast again.

Worked example

A store sells a scented candle at 4 units a day normally. Last year, in the two weeks before Mother's Day, it sold 16 a day, a 4x spike. Lead time is 10 days and the store wants 5 days of cover plus 3 safety days. Order qty = 16 x (10 + 5) - (20 on hand + 0 on order) = 240 - 20 = 220 units, rounded up to 240 for a 24-unit case pack. Counting back 13 days (10 lead time + 3 safety) from Mother's Day gives the order-by date.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf's default forecast uses a 28-day sales window and only applies seasonality once it has about 13 months of history, so it will not automatically know about a one-off spike like Mother's Day in your first year. Once you have a year of data, its seasonality adjustment can factor in last year's holiday bump; until then, estimate the multiplier yourself and adjust the suggested order quantity by hand before approving the PO.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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