How to plan inventory for Father's Day

Identify the Father's Day SKUs first

Not everything in your store sells more for Father's Day. Pull last year's sales for the two to three weeks before the date and flag the variants that spiked compared to their normal run rate. If you did not sell last year, use your best judgment on which products are gift-type items (grooming kits, wallets, tools, apparel in men's sizes) and treat those as seasonal candidates.

Move your order-by date earlier

Your normal reorder point assumes steady daily sales. A seasonal spike means you sell through stock faster than usual in the run-up, so if you order on the usual trigger date you may arrive late. Work backwards from Father's Day: take your supplier's lead time, add a buffer for the spike period, and place the order well before your system would normally flag it.

Size the order for the spike, not the average

Do not use your trailing 28-day average daily sales to size a Father's Day order, it will undershoot. Estimate a peak daily rate from last year's event window, or from how similar gift occasions have performed, and use that rate for the days covering the event plus a few days after in case of late gift buyers.

Plan for the drop-off after the date

Stock bought for Father's Day often stalls right after it passes. Order close to what you expect to sell through the event rather than padding for a long tail, unless the product also sells normally the rest of the year.

Step by step

1. List last year's top sellers for the two weeks before Father's Day and flag those variants.
2. For each flagged SKU, find the supplier's lead time and add a few extra safety days for the busy period.
3. Count backwards from Father's Day using that lead time to set your order-by date, earlier than your normal trigger.
4. Estimate a peak daily sales rate from last year's event, not your recent average.
5. Calculate order quantity as peak daily rate x (lead time + days of cover) minus what you already have on hand or on order.
6. Round up to the supplier's case pack or minimum order quantity.
7. Place the order by your calculated date so stock lands with a few days to spare before the event.

Worked example

A store sells a men's grooming kit that normally moves 2 units a day, but last year it sold 14 units a day in the five days before Father's Day. The supplier's lead time is 10 days. Working backwards from Father's Day, the store needs to place the order 10 days before the event, not when the normal reorder point triggers. Using the peak rate of 14 units a day for 5 days of cover, and with 8 units currently on hand, the order quantity is (14 x 5) - 8 = 62 units, rounded up to the supplier's case pack of 70.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf forecasts from a 28-day sales window and only picks up seasonality once it has about 13 months of history, so it will not automatically know Father's Day is coming the first time around. You can still use it to track lead times and on-hand stock, but for the demand spike itself you need to pull last year's numbers yourself and size the order manually, or adjust the suggested quantity up before approving the purchase order.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

SteadyShelf is launching on the Shopify App Store. Join early access to get the install link first.

Related guides

• How to plan inventory for free gift with purchase offers
• How to plan inventory for Halloween
• How to plan inventory for handmade products
• How to plan inventory for domestic suppliers

All inventory how-to guides · Inventory glossary

FAQ