Inventory how-to

When should you place your holiday inventory order

Work backward from your supplier's lead time plus the days you want stock on the shelf before the rush starts.

Short answer: Work backward from your supplier's lead time plus the days you want stock on the shelf before the rush starts. For most small stores that means ordering 6 to 10 weeks before your peak selling dates, earlier if your supplier has holiday order cutoffs or slower shipping during that period.

Start from your sell-through date, not today's date

Pick the date you need stock sitting on your shelf, ready to sell. That is usually 1 to 2 weeks before your expected demand spike, so stock is unpacked, counted, and listed as in stock. Then subtract your supplier's lead time and any safety days to get your order-by date.

Holiday demand is not your normal daily average

Your regular 28-day sales average will understate what you need for the holiday period. Look at last year's actual sales for the same weeks, if you have the history, and use that as your daily sales number for the calculation instead of your current average. If you do not have last year's data, pad your normal average with a judgment call based on how much higher you expect demand to be.

Watch supplier capacity, not just transit time

Lead time quoted by a supplier in a normal month can stretch in the weeks before major holidays, because every retailer is ordering at once. Ask your supplier directly if they have a cutoff date for holiday orders or if lead times extend in that window, and build that extra time into your order-by date.

Do not forget case packs and minimums

Holiday order quantities often get rounded up more than usual because you are ordering bigger batches. Check that the rounded quantity still fits your storage and cash flow before you commit, especially for items you only sell seasonally.

Step by step

  1. Decide the date you need stock in hand and ready to sell, then work backward.
  2. Pull last year's sales for the same calendar weeks, if available, and use that as your expected daily sales rate.
  3. Ask each supplier for their current lead time and whether it extends around the holidays.
  4. Add safety days to cover shipping delays or demand spikes above your estimate.
  5. Calculate order quantity: daily sales x (lead time + days of cover) minus (on hand + on order).
  6. Round the quantity up to the nearest case pack or supplier minimum.
  7. Place the order by the date you calculated, not closer to the holiday.

Worked example

A gift shop expects to sell 20 units a day of a holiday candle during the two weeks before Christmas, based on last year's sales for that period. The supplier's lead time is 21 days, stretching to 28 days in November due to holiday demand, and the store wants 7 safety days. Order point calculation: 20 x (28 + 7) = 700 units needed to cover that window. The store has 50 on hand and 0 on order, so it needs to order 650 units, rounded up to 700 to match the supplier's case pack of 100. To have stock ready by December 11, the store counts back 35 days (28 lead time plus 7 safety) and places the order by November 6.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf can calculate your order-by date and suggested quantity automatically once you update the lead time and safety days for the supplier, and it will use your sales history including seasonality once you have about 13 months of data. It will not know about a supplier's holiday-specific cutoffs or capacity limits, so confirm those directly with the supplier and adjust the lead time field yourself.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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FAQ

What if I don't have last year's holiday sales data yet

Use your current 28-day average as a floor and increase it by a judgment factor based on how much more you expect to sell, then order earlier than you think you need to as a buffer. Once you have a year of data, this estimate gets much easier and more accurate.

Should I order extra safety stock for holiday items specifically

Yes, increase your safety days for the holiday period specifically, since both demand and supplier reliability are less predictable than normal. A week or two of extra safety days is a reasonable starting point, adjusted based on how critical the item is to your holiday sales.

Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU

Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.

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