How to plan inventory when your supplier closes for Chinese New Year

Work out the real lead time

Chinese New Year shutdowns are usually a fixed date range, but the real gap is longer than the holiday itself. Factories often slow down a week or two before the holiday as workers travel home, and they take time to get back to full output after. Ask your supplier for their actual order cutoff date and their expected ship date after reopening, not just the public holiday dates.

Calculate the extended coverage you need

Once you know the real gap, treat it as a one-off lead time extension for that supplier. Add the shutdown weeks, the ramp-up weeks, and your normal shipping time together, then use that total instead of your usual lead time when working out order quantity. Add a buffer on top for the fact that everyone else is also rushing orders in before the holiday, which can push ramp-up delays further.

Place the order early and track two cutoffs

There are two dates that matter: the date the supplier stops taking new orders, and the date they stop shipping before closing. Place your order well before the first cutoff, since factories get backed up in the weeks before the holiday. Confirm in writing what will actually ship before the cutoff versus what will roll over to after reopening.

Watch your sell-through during the gap

Once stock is ordered, check your sales pace against it regularly through the shutdown period. If sales run faster than planned you need a backup plan, such as a secondary supplier, a substitute product, or accepting a stockout, well before you run out rather than finding out the week it happens.

Step by step

1. Get the supplier's exact order cutoff date and expected restart shipping date, not just the holiday dates
2. Add shutdown length plus ramp-up delay plus normal shipping time to get your extended lead time for this period
3. Recalculate order quantity using: daily sales x (extended lead time + days of cover) minus (on hand + on order)
4. Round the quantity up to the supplier's case pack and minimum order size
5. Place the order before the supplier's order cutoff, not the shipping cutoff
6. Check actual sales against your stock weekly during the shutdown and have a backup plan ready if you are selling faster than planned
7. Once the supplier reopens, confirm the new ship date and update your reorder point back to normal lead time

Worked example

A store sells a variant at 6 units a day. Normal lead time from this supplier is 20 days. Chinese New Year shuts the factory for 14 days, plus a 10-day ramp-up before shipments resume, so the extended lead time becomes 20 + 14 + 10 = 44 days. The store wants 14 days of cover after that. Order quantity = 6 x (44 + 14) minus current stock of 60 and 0 on order = 6 x 58 - 60 = 288 units. The store rounds this up to the supplier's case pack of 300 units and places the order two weeks before the factory's order cutoff.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf forecasts daily sales and gives you the order-by date and suggested quantity from a supplier's lead time and safety days, so you can manually enter an extended lead time for the Chinese New Year period to get a correct suggested order. It does not know about holiday shutdowns automatically, so you need to update that supplier's lead time yourself before and after the closure.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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