Inventory how-to

How to plan inventory for an email campaign

Estimate the demand spike before you send, check stock and incoming orders against that estimate, and move your order-by date earlier so stock lands before the campaign.

Short answer: Estimate the demand spike before you send, check stock and incoming orders against that estimate, and move your order-by date earlier so stock lands before the campaign. The key is treating the campaign like a temporary jump in daily sales, not your normal forecast.

Estimate the spike first

Look at past campaigns to the same list, if you have them. Work out how many units of each featured SKU you sold in the days the campaign ran, compared to a normal week. If you have no history, make a conservative guess based on list size and typical conversion, and round up rather than down. You need a daily sales number for the campaign period, separate from your normal daily sales number.

Check stock against the spike, not the average

Take on hand plus on order for each featured SKU. Compare that to expected campaign sales plus normal sales for the lead time it would take to get more stock if you sell out. If the gap is close, you risk running out mid campaign. Treat any SKU where campaign demand alone exceeds on hand as a real risk, not a rounding error.

Order earlier than usual

Your normal order-by date is based on average daily sales. For a campaign, pull the order-by date forward using the higher expected daily sales for the campaign days. If a supplier needs 14 days to ship and the campaign starts in 10 days, you are already late and need to call them, not just place an order.

Plan for the drop after

Campaigns often pull forward sales that would have happened anyway over the following weeks. After the campaign, your daily sales may dip below normal for a while. Do not let a post-campaign forecast based on the spike push you into over-ordering right after.

Step by step

  1. List the SKUs featured in the campaign and pull their last 28 days of sales as a baseline.
  2. Estimate campaign-period daily sales for each SKU using past campaign results or a conservative manual guess.
  3. Calculate reorder point for the campaign: daily sales (campaign) x (lead time + safety days).
  4. Compare that reorder point to on hand plus on order for each SKU.
  5. For any SKU below the campaign reorder point, place or expedite an order now, not on the normal order-by date.
  6. Confirm with the supplier that lead time will hold given the timing, especially if the campaign is soon.
  7. After the campaign, watch for a sales dip and avoid reordering based on the spike alone.

Worked example

A store plans an email campaign to 20,000 subscribers for a candle that normally sells 6 units a day. Their last similar campaign produced 40 units a day for the 3 days it ran, so they use 40 as the campaign daily sales figure. The supplier has a 10 day lead time and they keep 3 safety days, so campaign reorder point is 40 x (10 + 3) = 520 units. They currently have 180 on hand and 100 on order, total 280, which is well short of 520, so they place an order for at least 240 more units today instead of waiting for their normal order-by date.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf's forecast is based on your recent 28-day sales window, so it will not know about a campaign in advance and may under-order for it. Use SteadyShelf's order-by dates and on hand numbers as your starting point, then manually increase the quantity for campaign SKUs before approving the purchase order.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

SteadyShelf is launching on the Shopify App Store. Join early access to get the install link first.

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FAQ

Can SteadyShelf automatically bump up forecasts when I schedule a campaign?

No. It has no way to know a campaign is happening, since its forecast comes from recent sales history only. You need to manually override the suggested quantity for campaign SKUs before approving the purchase order.

Will the campaign spike mess up my forecast afterwards?

It can, since a few days of high sales will raise your rolling average once they fall inside the 28-day window. Watch the suggested quantities for featured SKUs in the weeks after the campaign and reduce them manually if they look inflated by the spike.

Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU

Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.

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