Inventory how-to

How to manage end of season inventory

Stop reordering early, track sell-through weekly, and decide on markdowns or clearance before the season actually ends.

Short answer: Stop reordering early, track sell-through weekly, and decide on markdowns or clearance before the season actually ends. The key is to cut off new stock before demand drops, not after.

Know when the season is ending

Seasonal items do not sell at a steady pace. Sales usually rise, peak, then drop off fast at the end of the season. If you keep using a flat daily sales average right up to the end, you will over-order. Watch the trend over the last couple of weeks, not just the last 28 days, and expect it to understate the drop as the season closes.

Cut off reordering early

Set a hard stop date for each seasonal SKU, based on when you know demand falls off from past years. Once you pass that date, do not place new orders even if stock looks low. Any order placed close to the cutoff should be small and only to cover confirmed demand, not to hit a full days-of-cover target.

Watch days of stock, not just units

Calculate days of stock (on hand divided by daily sales) weekly as the season winds down. If days of stock starts climbing even though units on hand are falling, that means sales are slowing faster than your stock is. That is your signal to stop ordering and start planning markdowns.

Plan markdowns before you are stuck

Decide your markdown schedule in advance: for example 20% off with 6 weeks of season left, 40% off with 3 weeks left, clear at 60% off after that. Waiting until the season is over to start marking down means competing with every other store doing the same thing at the same time.

Step by step

  1. List all SKUs tied to the ending season and sort by days of stock.
  2. Set a cutoff date for reordering each SKU based on past seasons.
  3. Stop placing new purchase orders for those SKUs after the cutoff.
  4. Check days of stock weekly and compare to weeks left in the season.
  5. Set markdown trigger points in advance tied to weeks remaining.
  6. Apply markdowns on schedule rather than waiting to see if sales pick up.
  7. Note what was left over at season end so next year's forecast builds it in.

Worked example

A store sells wool scarves with about 6 weeks of real season left. Daily sales have dropped from 10 a day to 4 a day over the last two weeks, but the 28-day average still shows 7 a day. Using 7 a day, days of stock on 300 units looks like 43 days, which seems fine. Using the real recent rate of 4 a day, it is 75 days, meaning the store is heavily overstocked and should stop ordering and start marking down now.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf forecasts from a 28-day sales window, so it can lag a sharp end-of-season drop by a couple of weeks and may still suggest reordering slightly too long. It does not do markdown planning or clearance pricing at all, so you need to track sell-through and set markdown schedules manually, using SteadyShelf's days-of-stock view as one input rather than the final word.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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FAQ

Should I just set safety days to zero for seasonal SKUs near the end?

You can, but it only addresses reorder timing, not the stock you already have. Setting safety days to zero stops new orders being padded, but you still need to manually watch days of stock and decide on markdowns for what is already on the shelf.

How far in advance should I set the reorder cutoff date?

Base it on when sales dropped off in previous years for that same product or category, then build in your supplier's lead time so you are not receiving stock after the cutoff has already passed.

Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU

Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.

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