Inventory how-to

How far ahead should you order for the holidays

Order early enough that your supplier can deliver, you can receive and shelve the stock, and you still have a buffer before peak demand hits.

Short answer: Order early enough that your supplier can deliver, you can receive and shelve the stock, and you still have a buffer before peak demand hits. For most holiday timelines that means placing orders 8 to 12 weeks before your peak selling dates, earlier if your supplier has holiday production cutoffs.

Work backward from your peak date

Pick the date you need stock on the shelf, not the date you expect to sell out. Subtract your supplier's lead time, then subtract a few extra days for receiving and put-away. That gives you the latest date you can place the order. Add a safety buffer on top, because supplier lead times tend to stretch during peak season.

Holiday demand is not your normal daily average

Your usual 28-day sales window will understate what you need in November and December if last year's holiday spike is not yet in that window. If you have about 13 months of sales history, seasonality from last year can inform the forecast. If you do not have that history yet, you need to manually bump up quantities for known holiday SKUs based on your own judgment.

Suppliers get slower and stricter around the holidays

Factories and freight slow down before major holidays, and some suppliers set hard order cutoffs weeks in advance. Call or email your key suppliers now and ask for their holiday cutoff dates and expected lead times. Build your order-by dates around their answers, not around your normal lead time assumption.

Do not forget case packs and minimums

Holiday rushes often expose that you are short on bestsellers, not spread evenly across your catalog. Check that your top sellers have enough case packs on order, since a minimum order quantity set for normal months may leave you short at peak.

Step by step

  1. List your top holiday SKUs and confirm last year's peak sales numbers if you have them.
  2. Contact each supplier and ask for current lead time and any holiday order cutoff date.
  3. Pick your required in-stock date and subtract lead time plus safety days plus receiving time to get your order-by date.
  4. Increase quantities above your normal 28-day average for known seasonal items, using last year's actuals if available.
  5. Round up to full case packs and check you meet supplier minimums.
  6. Place the order well before the supplier's cutoff, not on the deadline day.
  7. Track incoming shipments and follow up if a supplier goes quiet during peak season.

Worked example

Say you sell scarves and want stock on shelves by November 15. Your supplier's lead time is 6 weeks, and you want a 10-day safety buffer plus 3 days to receive and shelve the stock. That is 42 plus 10 plus 3 days, or 55 days before November 15, which puts your order-by date at around September 21. If last year you sold 15 scarves a day during the holiday peak versus your normal 5 a day, you order based on 15 a day for the holiday window, not your current 28-day average of 5.

How SteadyShelf helps

SteadyShelf gives you an order-by date per SKU based on lead time and safety days, and it will factor in seasonality automatically once you have about 13 months of sales history. Without that history, it will not know your holiday spike is coming, so you need to manually increase quantities for known seasonal SKUs and check supplier cutoff dates yourself.

$29/month flat, unlimited products and suppliers, 30-day free trial. Run the numbers now with the free reorder point calculator.

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FAQ

What if I do not have 13 months of sales history yet

Then the forecast will rely on your recent 28-day sales window, which will not reflect a holiday spike. Use last year's actual sales numbers if you have any record of them, or your own estimate, and manually increase the suggested order quantity for seasonal SKUs before approving the purchase order.

Should I order extra for every SKU or just bestsellers

Focus extra holiday buffer on SKUs that actually spike in demand, not your whole catalog. Ordering a flat percentage increase across everything ties up cash in slow-moving stock and does nothing to protect your actual bestsellers from running out.

Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU

Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.

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