Inventory glossary
What is New product forecasting?
New product forecasting is the practice of estimating demand for a product that has no sales history, using comparable products, market knowledge, or pre-order data instead of past sales.
For a small Shopify store, launching a new product is a guess until it is not. You have no sales data to lean on, so you have to borrow numbers from a similar product you already sell, or from supplier recommendations, or from pre-launch signals like email signups or social media interest. Getting this wrong in either direction costs money: order too much and cash sits in a box, order too little and you sell out in week one and lose momentum.
The practical approach is to pick the closest analog you already carry, adjust for differences like price point or audience size, and set an initial order that covers a short, defined period rather than guessing a full season. Plan to review actual sell-through after the first two to four weeks and reorder based on real numbers as soon as they exist.
Example
A candle store is launching a new "Fig and Oak" scent. Its closest analog, "Cedar and Sage," sold 180 units in its first month last year. The new scent has a smaller target audience based on pre-launch email signups, about 70% the size of Cedar and Sage's. The owner estimates first month demand at 180 x 0.7 = 126 units, rounds to a case pack of 130, and orders that amount to start.
Common mistakes
- Treating a guess as a precise number and ordering a full season of stock on day one.
- Picking an analog product that is not actually similar in price, audience, or use case.
- Ignoring early sales signals and waiting too long to adjust the forecast once real data comes in.
New product forecasting and SteadyShelf
SteadyShelf forecasts best once a SKU has sales history, so for a brand new product you set the first order manually and then let it take over demand forecasting and reorder timing once sales start coming in.
SteadyShelf is launching on the Shopify App Store. Join early access to get the install link first.
Related terms
Demand forecasting · Launch inventory · Pre-season buy · Forecast horizon · Demand variability
FAQ
How do you forecast sales for a product with no history?
Use a similar product you already sell as a reference point, adjust the number up or down based on known differences like audience size or price, then order a small initial batch and correct course once real sales data comes in.
How much should I order for a brand new product launch?
Order enough to cover a short initial period, such as four to six weeks, rather than a full season. This limits your risk if the forecast is wrong and lets you reorder with real sales data soon after launch.
Let SteadyShelf do this math for every SKU
Order-by dates per supplier, seasonal forecasts and draft POs for your Shopify store. $29/month after a 30-day free trial.
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